Dufferin · Grey · Simcoe Counties
A comprehensive analysis of the most recent real estate data across three Ontario counties — covering median prices, days on market, inventory levels, sale-to-list ratios, mortgage rates, and emerging market trends as of February 2026.
Across all three counties, prices have retreated from their 2021–2023 peaks while days on market have extended significantly — a clear indicator of buyer-favourable conditions entering spring 2026.
February 2026 data from TRREB shows Simcoe County's average home price at $805,948, down 8.8% year-over-year. The median price across the broader county sits at $651,500, a 12.3% annual decline. Despite softer prices, activity is picking up — showings increased significantly from January to February, signaling renewed buyer interest heading into spring.
Homes in Simcoe County are spending an average of 72 days on the market before selling — well above historical norms. In Barrie specifically, the market is classified as a "Strong Buyer's Market" with 6 months of inventory. Conditional offers are common and buyers are successfully negotiating below list price.
The sale-to-list ratio of ~97% means buyers are successfully negotiating, on average, $24,000 below asking on an $800K home. First-time buyers in Barrie are particularly well-positioned with 6 months of inventory and a median negotiation gap of -$19,900.
Dufferin County's average home price dropped to $692,409 in February 2026, a 15.1% year-over-year decline. However, context is critical: January 2026 saw a temporary spike to $815,300 — a 17.8% month-over-month swing driven by a small number of higher-priced sales.
With a relatively low transaction volume, individual sales have an outsized effect on averages. The majority of February transactions occurred in the $400,000–$500,000 range, reflecting where real demand is concentrated. Orangeville, the county's main urban centre, shows 108 active listings and 7.0 months of inventory — firmly in buyer's market territory.
The January–February price swing of 17.8% reflects the thin nature of this market — a handful of higher-priced sales can dramatically move the average. Buyers and sellers should focus on the $400K–$500K price band where actual transaction volume is concentrated, rather than reacting to headline average figures.
Grey County is not a monolithic market. From the luxury recreational enclave of The Blue Mountains ($1,180,000 avg.) to the more affordable communities of Hanover ($443,333 avg.) and West Grey ($480,143 avg.), price points and market velocity vary dramatically across nine municipalities.
The broader Grey and Bruce region has seen months of inventory expand to 12.1 months — up nearly 18% year-over-year. New listings in February rose 15% year-over-year to 130, while the regional sale-to-list ratio sits at 95%, meaning sellers are accepting offers approximately 5% below their asking price on average.
| Municipality | Avg. Sale Price | Homes Sold | Median DOM | House Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Mtns | $1,180,000 | 15 | 66 days | $1,177,700 |
| Meaford | $1,081,900 | 5 | 30 days | $636,900 |
| Southgate | $710,000 | 2 | 117 days | $550,900 |
| Chatsworth | $572,000 | 1 | 100 days | $548,000 |
| Geo. Bluffs | $527,200 | 5 | 163 days | $625,500 |
| Owen Sound | $511,288 | 16 | 56 days | $401,100 |
| Grey Highlands | $491,414 | 7 | 43 days | $556,400 |
| West Grey | $480,143 | 7 | 51 days | $543,400 |
| Hanover | $443,333 | 3 | 129 days | $464,600 |
The county-wide median price was $707,712 in February 2026, up 6% year-over-year and 6.5% month-over-month — suggesting price stability is returning at the median level even as averages fluctuate. Georgian Bluffs stands out with 163 median days on market, while Meaford moved homes in just 30 days.
The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% as of March 18, 2026, with the prime rate at 4.45%. Inflation fell to 1.8% in February — below the BoC's 2% target — giving policymakers room to hold steady.
For buyers, this means fixed mortgage rates remain competitive and predictable heading into the spring market. The best available 5-year fixed rate sits at 3.85%, making this one of the most accessible borrowing environments since 2022.
| Term | Lowest | Avg (10 lenders) | 30-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Yr Fixed | 4.74% | 5.21% | ↓ -7 bps |
| 3-Yr Fixed | 3.85% | 4.35% | ↓ -2 bps |
| 5-Yr Fixed | 3.85% | 4.37% | ↑ +2 bps |
| 5-Yr Variable | 5.47% | 3.98% | ↓ -4 bps |
"The layers of uncertainty the BoC obsesses over are getting thicker by the day" — citing global energy prices as a risk.
CIBC's Royce Mendes points to labor market softness as the more immediate concern for rate decisions.
Leading real estate media and local market experts are aligned on one key theme: 2026 is a year of transition. The buyer's advantage that exists today is expected to narrow as spring progresses and sidelined buyers re-enter the market.
"Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand."
"Sales will pick up slightly, prices will remain roughly flat, active listings will climb toward pre-pandemic levels, and mortgage rates will decline modestly."
"Home values to rise a modest 1.2% nationally in 2026, with fewer markets experiencing annual price declines."
"First-time buyers are BACK, and Simcoe County is where the deals are happening. Prices expected to grind sideways — not fall further."
"Once we see both prices level off and positive economic news, there could be substantial momentum driving home sales in the second half of this year."
Whether buying or selling, the data points to spring 2026 as a pivotal inflection point for this region.